southwest winter forecast 2022 southwest winter forecast 2022

August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. Transcript (PDF): October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Integrated Drought Information System. 10 day. Is there any other teleconnections that can offer an explanation as to why certain La Nina years were wet in california like FY10/11. One exception is southwestern Canada and higher elevations in the western/northwestern United States. The storied old journal's extended weather forecast predicts "plenty of snow, rain and mush as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! The next image below shows the change in the snow depth forecast between the latest model data and the previous model run. I find this type of study fascinating. One of the main features of the UK's weather this year has been the seemingly indomitable prevalence of mild conditions, which has catapulted 2022 into strong contention for the warmest year on record. Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. Such heavy precipitation was unexpected prior to the season in a region afflicted with a multi-year severe drought, especially given that we are in the third consecutive winter of La Nia. AccuWeather meteorologists break down which areas will. The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a typical La Nina snowfall pattern. It's important to keep in mind that not every location in the Southwest has been wetter than normal lately. Rishi Sunak set to unveil new laws to tackle small boat crossings in Channel next week, Government WhatsApp decision-making threatens 'accountability', warns Information Commissioner, Snow and ice warning as coldest day of year so far to hit UK as temperatures plummet, continues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October, 'How bad are the pics? These temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4F warmer than normal. Winter will feel unreasonably cold from the Great Lakes region to the Mid-Atlantic, especially in January, The Farmers' Almanac says in its first forecast for 2022-23. These variations include the magnitude and location of the strongest tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaliesa particular flavor of La Nia. This was an interesting post that gave more insights into how La Nia can influence winter precipitation in the Southwest, and how it's more complex than stating that its presence means it'll be dry. In turn, the NAO, PNA and AO combinations--some of which can be reasonably forecast on intraseasonal scales--demonstrate that some of our wettest winters can come in a La Nina year. The January snowfall forecast shows more potential in northern and western Europe. These represent the range of variation when the only thing were taking into account is its a La Nia winter. Then, for each of those 21 years, I looked at the range of outcomes across the 30 simulations, thus including the chaotic, unpredictable weather variability. The question is, whats different about those years? Surprisingly to me, the SST correlation pattern did not project strongly onto the mean La Nina SST anomaly pattern, as one might expect if the dominant effect was a linear amplitude effect. Again, there is an expectation that January and February will see more of an influence from the Atlantic, with the ECMWF maps indicating near-average precipitation levels for most of the UK. Rain, heavy at times, will sweep quickly north-eastwards across most parts. The most important ingredients for snowfall are the air being cold enough and a supply of moisture. This will impact the Friday evening commute with delayed travel likely. The most dynamic winter weather is usually found between the warm and cold anomalies in the Midwest and the central United States. However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. We will look at two highly regarded seasonal weather forecasting systems. Warmer than normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States, eastern United States, and eastern Canada. Submitted by Stan Rose on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 21:45. This year, La Nia is forecast to prevail for a third straight winter. Winter has arrived, but what's the potential for cold and snow in the UK? The image shows the average jet stream position in La Nina winters and the resulting weather patterns developing over the United States and Canada in a cold-ENSO dominant Winter. NOAAs seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. CPC Outlook for Winter 2022-23: The overall forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida for the upcoming winter is for a better chance of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall as can be seen in the Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook graphics below. London blanketed in 5 inches of snow as capital suffers travel chaos, The Great Dying: ancient mass extinction event is warning for society, Study reveals why mosquitos are attracted to some people more than others. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. It was also noticeable that most mediterranean-like climates in both ( North and South) hemispheres had shown early signals of drought in December-January Projections from last year , the coupling of a negative ENSO and negative PDO with Negative IOD brings limited number of Lanina years with such combined wet-dry phases during a particular ENSO ( cold or warm ) . Since the latest forecast data was released in mid-late November, we now also have the March data included, so we can look at some early Spring snowfall potential. This calm outlook could well continue, with the Met Office putting the chances of this winter being 'windy' at just 5%. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson. Northerly winds (i.e. Also, the southwest is expected to be dry during the winter months, which won't help the drought. The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. That tends to redirect the polar jet stream down over the northern United States, with the cold air following. This connection has been hypothesized, but the evidence is mixed. That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 17:00, In reply to Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico by Tony Arnhold, Science & information for a climate-smart nation, torrential rains and heavy mountain snows, NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. With CAGRs of 17.4% and 12.7%, respectively, over the past 10 years. The video below shows the developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific as we head deeper into Fall, boosted by the strong easterly trade winds. Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. More snowfall is still forecast in the upper Midwest, with some hints of more snowfall around the central Great Lakes. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. Question: Will you also be writing a paper about this? Although the official winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will not come out for another few weeks, the agencys Climate Prediction Center does issue official outlooks for temperature and precipitation up to 13 months in advance. Updated 15 February 2023. It added its 10-day or longer forecasts are only . London and other areas in the south of England will surpass 20C higher than Athens, which is predicted to peak at 20C over the weekend. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures. Stay safe during severe cold weather. ET. So, the bottom line is that the relationship between La Nina amplitude and Southwest U.S. precipitation does not appear as simple as one (or at least I) would expect based on this analysis, and it's something I would like to understand better. I confirm from a regional point of view here in Jordan we had terribly dry December-January and the start of February was highlight with torrential rains . I did just one set of analyses focused on one particular region with one climate model, and thats why I stated up front that this is just the start of the conversation. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). Overall we still see less snowfall than normal for the first Winter month. December-February: January-March: Over North America, most of the country has below-average snow accumulation, except for the northwestern United States, upper Midwest, and southwestern Canada. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 12:10, In reply to Arctic amplification (?) Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter, said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. While December was above-average as far as the temperature goes, January was a different story. Biden set for first veto on Senate bill opposing climate-friendly investing, Global carbon dioxide emissions hit new highs last year, says IEA report, Young women are criticized for this vocal tic but it helps whales survive, winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics. In the West, the drought persists. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. . The Met Office adds: What about the moisture? Follow severe weather as it happens. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, which often is the rain-snow line for major storms, the Farmers Almanac suggests more snow than rain. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. Yes, Tucson is in the part of the Southwest where the La Nina dry signal is usually quite reliable. Rick Wiley / Arizona Daily Star Facebook Meet COP21 Education Ambassador Shannon Bartholomew! But looking at the March snow forecast image below, we can see most of Europe having a lower-than-normal end to the snow season. The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. This is all thanks to blocking high pressure to the north-west of the UK, which will prevent low pressure bringing mild air from the west and will instead favour colder air from the north and east. Over the coming days, cold Arctic air will descend on the UK like a hoard of shoppers on a clothing store in the Boxing Day sales, plunging us into a period of frigid conditions that may well last right through the middle of December and into the run up to Christmas. By Eva Hagan. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. You will see the average snowfall forecast for the meteorological Winter season, covering the December-January-February period. This winter's total is a record for Bellemont but in 1948-49 there was 153.9 inches at the airport ..still have time to top that record since average March snowfall is about 15 inches, Submitted by Craig T on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 14:34. Probably the coupling of weak Polar vortex with the recurrent PV stratospheric warming has something to do with the Southward (equator-wise) migration of Atmospheric wet Rivers in mid to late winter , this last point is well-documented in many physical science papers that weak polar vortex post SSW events tend to measure more equator-wise migration of the Jetstream causing these atmospheric rivers to bring wetter than normal events to California and many mediterranean-like climates in the northern hemisphere late winter. Regarding the "warm blobs" you mention, most studies suggest that extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies generally do not have a major impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, so I suspect that the two warm blobs you mention did not have a major impact on Southwest U.S. precipitation. I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. Thanks for doing those simulations, and for sharing the results here. The emerging La Nia weather pattern plays a part in this year's winter outlook. - 29 US states are under winter weather alerts as people brace for a winter storm expected to bring heavy snow . From that, you will see the snowfall predictions for the upcoming Winter and how they are changing as we get closer to Winter, with the forecast accuracy also increasing. Much of this snowfall does not settle, and the figures for snow on the ground (snow lying) are much lower. However, we still need more analysis to see if the particular sea surface temperature pattern this year played some role, including the unusual frequency of atmospheric rivers. If there aren't any climate researchers looking into this now, I'm sure there will be some soon! We see an increased snow potential over the upper Midwest, with some other areas across the Midwest having normal snowfall amounts forecast this month (0/white areas). The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. 16 min read. Rains by Scott Yuknis. Above-normal precipitation is possible in northwestern Montana, northern Idaho and northeastern Washington state. All good scientific studies note their limitations, and this analysis carries some caveats that are familiar to most climate scientists. Please choose your location from the nearest places to : Warnings have been issued for snow and ice by the Met Office, as a northerly airflow will bring some disruptive weather through next week. Such projections reflect typical conditions that develop during La Nia events, which are associated with an episodic cooling of ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. Quite unusual! Submitted by Matt on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 11:44. Pacific Southwest Another mild winter is expected this year, Goble said. Alex Burkill, senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: Its likely to be the warmest spell weve had at the end of October since 2014, when we had the warmest Halloween on record. We can also see more snowfall hinted in this run over southern Great Britain. Average DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) for all La Nia events from 1951-2020, defined as La Nia occurring in DecemberFebruary. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. This precipitation will either be rain or snow, depending on just how cold the air is, and where the freezing level is. Below is an image that compares the latest forecast to the previous one. Light winds. With temperatures so warm winter and the chance of snow feel somewhat distant. The southeastern United States snowfall is perhaps an unlikely scenario at first, but just one intense cold outbreak could bring some snowfall further far into the south. This question often boils down to whether there were subtle variations in the sea surface temperature pattern that preconditioned the atmosphere for wetter-than-usual conditions in the region (2). During the back half of the winter, AccuWeather says, colder conditions finally will enter the country and drop cold air into the central United States, bringing heavy snow to parts of the central Plains and the Rocky Mountains. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. For full-year 2023, it plans to expand flying as much as . I also agree that relying on ENSO indices for a seasonal forecast is a recipe for a busted forecast, particularly IF the forecast is not interpreted correctly. According to Flagstaff NWS website they gave so far had 146.7" snow this winter which blows away the previous record. What does the latest ocean analysis data show, and what influence did it play on temperature and snowfall patterns in the past? So, that gets to the main point of the post. From the United States to Canada and over Europe, we will look at the latest Full snowfall forecasts and trends, extending the view into early Spring. However, for the UK, being an island surrounded by the milder water, the air can often warm up slightly before it reaches our shores, and we often see rain rather than snow, or, even trickier to forecast; a mix of rain, sleet and snow.. The pattern seems to be under the influence of a high-pressure system, as the forecast does not permit a lot of large-scale snowfall scenarios and snow accumulation. The figure below shows that most (13 of 21) of the La Nias from 1951-2020 had below-average December-January precipitation in this region (1), although wet early winters during La Nia clearly are not that unusual. Jamstec used to have a lot of information on their website but much of it seems to have left after a reported breach a couple of years back. Hourly. The almanac forecasts cold and wet conditions down even into Florida, with the worst of the cold forecast for January. For this analysis, I am using simulations of monthly climate from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model called SPEAR, the same model that contributes seasonal forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), but here the experiment is designed to analyze the climate effects of the observed sea surface temperature evolution from 1951-2020 (4). The more forecast data you can look at, the better idea you can get about the expected weather patterns. With the La Nia climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.. We can see that the latest ECMWF forecast shows less snowfall over most of the continent compared to last months forecast for the entire Winter season. This is an interesting question, and perhaps sometime Nat will have a chance to look into it. The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South Distribution of DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) in the Southwest U.S. (region defined in the figure above) for all 21 La Nias from 1951-2020. This model has been quite consistent with low snow accumulation since the early September runs. My conclusion: the chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations in La Nia amplitude or flavor for Southwest U.S. precipitation, which is consistent with the figure above. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:25, In reply to Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano by Ed Ratledge. The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if enough moisture is available. The snowfall forecast focuses the most snowfall on the Midwest. Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 18:31, In reply to forecast busts by Nathaniel.Johnson, Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 10:31, Minor correction. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). The almanac, which releases an annual long-range. Winter- It's Coming! Plenty of sunshine is expected across the south over the next few days, matching temperatures in St Tropez in southern France. It was developed by the United Kingdom Met Office, which is where the initials UKMO come from. The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country." In the Great Lakes region,. Winter Forecast 2022-2023, Meteorologist Chris Tomer 5 months ago Winter Camping in Snowfall - Forester Tree Hug Tarp Setup - Spit Roast - Bushcraft Bowsaw Swedwoods 240K views 3 weeks ago. Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. La Nia could enter rare third straight year. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 19:55, In reply to Atmospheric rivers by Jiwon Kim. That's still down 45% from a year earlier, however. How harsh will winter be? As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. This figure confirms that SPEAR simulates very high Southwest U.S. precipitation totals in December-January in at least some of the simulated winter La Nias. December finally brings the cold. Weather.coms official winter outlook like NOAAs and AccuWeathers calls for above-normal temperatures in the South, while far-northern parts of the continental United States manage to stay below average, these conditions being driven by La Nia. But the main focus is on global long-range weather forecasting systems. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. This is typically on the western and southern border of low-pressure systems, where the northerly and northwesterly flow pulls down cold air from the north. into central Pacific vs. east Pacific La Nia events, we end up with a pretty small sample size. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button () there to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather and nature in general. Just wanted to Note that not all of the Southwest is receiving Robust Moisture. It's hard to say without looking at the study, but perhaps that was an analysis of observed La Nia events. The January snow depth forecast shows a similar pattern of more snowfall from western Canada into the northwestern United States. website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. The Farmers Almanac winter snow forecast is predicting an early start to winter, with a cold and stormy December. If we were to zoom into the tropical region, where sea surface temperatures have the greatest global climate impact, we would see some sea surface temperature differences of up to 0.2 C in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Preparations underway for winter storm southwest 15 hours ago . We see more snowfall over the northwestern and northern United States and southern Canada. The La Nina is set to break down going into Spring, with a warm phase (El Nino) chances increasing for late 2023. . By January, most of the country is mild, with lower temperatures farther north and a serious chill entering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by February, while the Southeast especially toward Florida, warms up. La Nina usually forms during strong trade winds, which can tell us much about the state of global circulation. The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains.